I find it both amusing and interesting that the accepted premise is that Greece will pull out of the euro first. Frankly, I can't imagine they'll be the ones to bail on the only real source of financing they currently have. No, I expect they'll do the honorable Greek (okay, Spartan) thing and leave on their shields. In other words, only once they realize there will be no more bail outs coming their way. Then again, maybe it will be with a German boot up their ass.
There is an article in the online BBC News Magazine titled 'Five ways the eurozone could break up.' Apparently, a Lord Wolfson says "..there is a serious need for a solution to any euro break-up" and is offering a monetary prize to the economist who comes up with the best plan (is that an oxymoron?). Personally, I'm going with the current number three: All return to national currencies.
Of course, this brings us back to the question of who will leave the eurozone first. My best guess? Germany. I mean, really, who wants to pay for their neighbor's debts forever. More importantly, how on earth could Chancellor Merkel justify it to her constituencies?
"Yes, my people, we are now supporting Frenchmen who are retiring two years earlier - at 60. You, however, shall work until 78, or until you drop. It is your duty to both your country and the rest of the eurozone!"
Riiiight. I can see that going over really well, kind of like asking Texas to support the land of fruits and nuts as they go bust.
The alternative is even more amusing: Germany negotiating its way to the top. In other words, conquering Europe economically. Somehow, I just can't see the other eurozone members acquiescing.
